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Hits:Updated:2016-05-24 15:05:29【Print】
| With the advent of 2016, how the shipping industry will develop has become the focus of attention. Clearly some shipping lines will still struggle, while well-funded companies may seize rare opportunities. Consolidation can also be expected to be an ongoing feature in the year ahead.
A few days ago, MOL CEO Junichiro Ikeda said in his New Year's speech that the prospects for the recovery of the shipping industry are minimal, and MOL hardly reported optimistic expectations for the next 12 months. Looking back at 2015, the sharp drop in oil prices to an almost 11-year low has been the decisive factor in the market development over the past year, while political tensions in the Middle East have pushed the price of Brent oil to $37.99 per barrel at the beginning of this year, up 1.9%. In this regard, most analysts do not believe that oil prices will continue to rise in 2016.
The slump in oil prices has also left shipowners mixed. Low oil prices mean lower operating costs, and the current fuel price remains at $170-180 per ton, a low price that has hardly been seen in the past 10 years. At the same time, the oil tanker sector also benefited a lot from falling oil prices. In 2015, tanker owners enjoyed their best year since 2008. By the end of 2015, the freight rate of VLCC was still maintained at the level of 100,000 US dollars per day. However, how long the tanker market can sustain the boom remains a question. While the market is still on a strong trend, with more and more orders for new ships, many in the industry have sounded the alarm that this strong trend will not be seen after the first or second quarter of 2016. continued.
Although the oil shipping industry has become the mainstay of the current shipping industry, the offshore industry continues to be impacted by low oil prices. Profits for offshore vessels and drilling rigs have fallen sharply over the past year, many orders have been cancelled and some companies are on the brink of bankruptcy. In the coming year, as oil companies' trade volume continues to be sluggish, demand for offshore vessels and drilling rigs is expected to decrease further, and cash flow will become the most pressing issue for many companies in this field.
For the bulk shipping industry, the market outlook does not seem bright. As the mass-commodity market bubble burst and demand in China fell, demand in the bulk market continued to decline. Although no one wants to see it, in December last year, the BDI index broke an all-time low record, setting a new low since the record was established, and it only lasted at 478 points as of the end of the year. Looking forward to 2016, the continuous weak growth of market demand and the widening gap between the oversupply of shipping capacity make it difficult for shipowners to view the market optimistically. Among them, Scorpio Bulkers, which had been aiming to become the world's largest bulk carrier owner a few years ago, sold 5 capesize bulk carriers at a price of US$167 million last year, withdrawing from this type of ship market.
The container shipping market performed well in the first half of 2015, but was still struggling in the second half of the year. Due to the lower-than-expected demand for container shipping and the surge in new vessel capacity in the market, especially the large number of super-large ships entering the market, there is increasing downward pressure on container shipping rates. Economies of scale will be a key issue for the container shipping industry in 2016, both in terms of vessel size and company size. Consolidation will become an important feature in the container shipping market in the coming year, and CMA CGM's acquisition of Dongfang Haihuang and the merger of COSCO and China Shipping will also be a key development in the consolidation of the container shipping industry in 2016. As business development becomes increasingly difficult and the market environment continues to be sluggish, only well-funded companies are expected to see growth opportunities in the coming year.
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