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Hits:Updated:2022-12-02 11:12:20【Print】
The decline of freight forwarding has not stopped, and the U.S. Western Line and the European line have fallen back to the rising point since 2020. The small peak season of shipment before the Spring Festival may "fail".
Rates fell 23 weeks in a row
According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, last week, the Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI) fell 76.94 points to 1229.9 points, down from 9.45% in the previous week to 5.89%, the 23rd consecutive week of decline, hit a 28-month low since late August 2020, the main routes of freight overall decline.
The FEU rate on the Far East to Spain line fell $63, or 4.04%, to $1,496 in the week, marking the first time the Feu rate has fallen below the $1,500 mark since late April 2020.
The FEU rate on the Far East to Eastern United States line fell $190, or 4.9 percent, to $3,687, the lowest since early August 2020.
Rates on the Far East to Europe line fell $72 per TEU, or 6.14%, to $1,100 per teu in the week, less than the 20% drop in the previous week, but back to the October 2020 starting point.
The Far East to Mediterranean line dropped $125 per TEU, or 6.35%, to $1,842 per teu.
Meanwhile, freight rates (sea freight and sea surcharge) for exports from Shanghai Port to Australia and New Zealand Basic Port market stood at US $613 per TEU, down 23.6% from last week.
In 2018-2019, the SCFI index fluctuated around 800-1100 points. Since 2020, affected by the epidemic, labor shortage and port congestion caused chaos in the global supply chain, the SCFI index has been rising all the way, reaching a record high of 5109 points in the first quarter of this year. However, since the second half of this year, freight rates have been falling, so far has not seen the bottom of the rebound, the industry's expectations for the year-end shopping season may be disappointed.
As freight rates continue to fall, the market is more pessimistic, with expectations that global inflationary pressures will have to ease before demand for commodities starts to pick up. Industry insiders predict that the high dividend era of container shipping market is over, and the operation of shipping companies will return to normal level in 2023.
The latest edition of Drury's World Container Rate Index (WCI) has recorded 39 consecutive weeks of decline. Down 7% in a week and 74% in a year, the index is at 2404; Among them, the European line fell 18 percent, down 84 percent year on year, the biggest drop, the freight rate per big box to 2192 dollars, hit a two-year low since October 22, 2020.
Several shipping companies on Friday were offering customers this week rates of $1,600 to $1,800 per large container (40-foot container), down about $200 to $1,500.
From "one box hard to get" to empty container pile port
The "money-printing machine at sea" suddenly met with cold
It is reported that in the past, the situation of "one container is difficult to obtain" has long gone, instead, a large number of empty containers piled up in the dock, bringing pressure to the port management.
Since the epidemic in 2020, the shipping market has been booming, and containers have become well-deserved "money-printing machines" at sea. Shipping companies are churning out crates at record levels, creating the potential for overcapacity.
Since the second half of this year, as the global capacity market has plummeted, a large number of empty containers have been left in the yard unattended.
"Now boxes are piled up on our roads, occupying many roads and heavy container areas in the port area. We are trying our best to explore the storage capacity," said assistant director of the production and business department of Guangzhou Port Corporation.
"The level of empty containers in Nansha Port of Guangzhou Port is twice more than the normal storage capacity. Now the normal space in the empty container area is basically full."
"In order to cope with the large amount of empty container reflux demand, we use various Spaces to stack empty containers. We also have some flexible deployment space, including adjusting the utilization rate of low heavy container yard and other functional sites for empty container stacking," he said.
Like Guangzhou Port, other ports in South China, such as Yantian Port and Shekou Port, are also under the pressure of empty container stacking.
In the view of a number of industry insiders, the reason why the current port empty container mass accumulation, there are mainly multiple reasons. "We now export demand is less and less, now some white power customers in the Pearl River Delta production is down 30 to 40 percent. In the past, ports mainly served these companies in export services, but now the volume of business has dropped dramatically." A port person said.
The head of a manufacturing factory in the Pearl River Delta says overseas retail giants have high inventories, so there is no need to place orders. "In the first three quarters of this year, our order volume has also fallen sharply, basically down 80 percent, and my clients have stopped placing orders."
What makes him more surprised is that, unlike in the past, the shipping company often cancels the shipping schedule. "Recently, we had a batch of goods waiting for export, which was directly canceled by the shipping company."
In its latest analysis of cancellations, Drury said 14 per cent of flights on major container routes were cancelled between late November and early December.
South China port people said that the situation of empty container congestion port can continue to improve, it depends on the speed of the market recovery. The optimistic forecast is for a reversal in June 2023.
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